OHK prepared the economic and spatial plan for developing North Jordan, a cornerstone in the country’s strategy for new economic zones in rural areas. In this blog post, we share analysis and viewpoints on baselining productivity in rural economies. All data come from OHK’s 2007-2030 socioeconomic model for the Jabal Ajloun region.
OHK mapped the land cover and parcelization of almost 1000 square kilometers of land in Jabal Ajloun, one of the largest land baselining programs ever conducted in Jordan and the Middle East. We have found that there are only 216 privately-owned agricultural parcels larger than 50 dunums—a mere 0.8% of the total number of private agricultural parcels. This challenges the agricultural productivity of an area which is among the most fertile in the country. Photo © OHK Consultants.
Over the course of our many field visits to Jabal Ajloun, one could not help but marvel at the beauty of the region. Whether the dense, rolling forests in the north, or the breathtaking views along the southern ridge overlooking the Zarqa valley and the Balqa beyond; whether the trees heavy with apricots in Wadi Souf, or the charming village architecture amidst the hills above the Jordan Valley, Jabal Ajloun is replete with aesthetic character.
And yet, despite the quiet, rural character of the area, our visits increasingly became tinged with urgency; for as we collected data on the baseline conditions of Jabal Ajloun we found that the socioeconomic, spatial, environmental, and institutional foundations of the landscape were growing ever more unsound. Although Ajloun has historically been spared some of the ravages of industrialization, worrisome trends have emerged, threatening to consign this jewel in the Jordanian crown to decay and foreclose on its nascent tourism potential before that potential can be realized.
These issues, therefore, have substantially informed the contents of OHK’s strategic planning, and have set the stakes for the future of 1% of Jordan’s land area.
Ajlounis suffer from many of the socioeconomic ills that are bedevil rural areas; however, as unpalatable this is on a national scale, it is all the more unfortunate in an area as rich in tourism and agricultural potential as Jabal Ajloun. It is a sad irony indeed that a land which was once regarded by the Ottomans as among the most productive in the Levant faces such economic and social marginalization.
Despite being one of Jordan’s most promising tourist destinations, employment in tourism accounts on average for a mere 1.2% of the total employment market, reflecting a particularly underdeveloped tourism infrastructure. Tourism products need a much-needed boost to improve quality, size, and offerings. Photo shows status quo of some tourist facilities in 2008 which OHK has redesigned as part of a transformational tourist strategy in park areas. Photo © OHK Consultants.
Perhaps the most serious socioeconomic issue is the inadequate and unsustainable economic base that often works to the detriment of the landscape. Jabal Ajloun is home to the least diverse employment base in the entire kingdom. Of those who are employed, by far the single most common economic activity is in the public sector (i.e., employment by the government, whether military or administrative). This reflects the dearth of employment opportunities in the region; so limited is private sector employment that the government must afford employment directly.
In Ajloun Governorate, an average of 65% of the total population of employed persons worked for the government – the highest figure for any governorate, and close to double the nationwide average. Curiously, jobs in agriculture and forestry account for less than 5% of the employment base in Ajloun – an area which is among the most fertile in the country. While the Ajlouni values are marginally higher than the nationwide average, they are still lower than in other, surprisingly arid governorates like Mafraq (5.1%) and Karak (7.2%).
Moreover, employment in tourism accounts on average for a mere 1.2% of the total employment market, reflecting a particularly underdeveloped tourism infrastructure. We can see the overwhelming preponderance of public sector employment. Moreover, only in Burma and Kufrangeh are the agricultural sectors more than negligible; however, these districts are the two least inhabited districts in Jabal Ajloun. Of course, these figures are relevant only for those who are employed: the unemployment rate in Jabal Ajloun ranged from 14% in Kufrangeh to 26% in Sakhra, with an overall rate for Ajloun Governorate at 18% – the second highest figure in Jordan.
In terms of agriculture, production is based primarily on fruit and olive tree harvesting, together with wheat and barley growing (generally on plateaus or in wide valleys, and on a smaller, water-dependent scale). Fruiting trees and vines constitute nearly 200,000 dunums of Jabal Ajloun and are consequently of greater strategic interest to the Jabal Ajloun region. The most common of these trees are olive trees, some of which date from the Byzantine era. Ajlouni olive oil, with its high quality and unique taste, is and will continue to remain an essential element of the Ajlouni agricultural regime. Indeed, olive oil pressing represents the primary industrial activity in the Ajloun Governorate.
Around a decade ago, the Ajloun Governorate contained 14 oil pressing factories which together constituted 26 production lines producing over two tons of olive oil annually. This has increased in 2018. Nevertheless, agricultural production remains small scale, and suffers from substantial technical and administrative problems, including a lack of resources, complex land ownership, poor infrastructure, and the absence of a central agriculture market in Ajloun.
Fruiting trees and vines constitute nearly a quarter of Jabal Ajloun (200,000 dunums) and are consequently of greater strategic interest. Some of the olive trees date from the Byzantine era. Photo © OHK Consultants.
The small scale of agriculture in Ajloun is in some ways a blessing; most agriculture remains rain-fed, and while economic gains are currently modest, the sector has avoided the more flagrant and deleterious environmental effects that often proceed from commercial agriculture. Even more importantly, Ajlouni agriculture lends itself quite effectively to the imperatives of agritourism (in terms of authenticity, character, and scenic value) as well as boutique and potentially brand-able products (such as Ajlouni olive oil or local fruit).
Furthermore, a number of wild cultivars with potential boutique value are found in Jabal Ajloun, including rosemary, capers, and wild asparagus. However, exploiting this boutique potential and reaping the economic benefit from such production requires technical, administrative, and marketing capabilities that are nonexistent in Ajloun. Diversification in downstream production, marketing and distribution is direly needed to support agro-based industries.
Most disturbing, however, is the subsuming of fertile agricultural lands by unplanned urban development. Though OHK has been unable to quantify changes in agricultural land cover historically, we have reason to believe that agriculture faces destruction by urbanization and irrelevance by parcelization into areas incapable of supporting economically feasible crop production. The latter is particularly pressing.
It has been estimated that an agricultural land parcel must be no less than 50 dunums in order to be considered commercially sustainable. However, our quantification of agricultural land parcels demonstrated that there are only 216 privately-owned agricultural parcels larger than 50 dunums in Jabal Ajloun – a mere 0.8% of the total number of private agricultural parcels.
An almost two-decade-old socioeconomic program for local communities that was established by the Royal Society of Nature manufactured agro- and nature-inspired products in Ajloun. OHK overhauled the program with a focus on transforming products, distribution, and rebranding, which included setting up new distribution and retail channels outside of the region. Photo was taken in 2018 and shows the program’s flagship store “the nature shop” located in Queen Alia International Airport which was set up as a result. Photo © OHK Consultants.
In terms of income and expenditures, statistics suggest that the Ajlouni household must endure comparatively tight finances. The average income of Ajlouni households contains the highest proportion of money from pensions and government aid in the Kingdom, whereby around a third of household income comes from these sources. Moreover, Ajlounis have a far higher dependence on government pension money (just under 18% of total household income) than the nationwide average which hovers around 10%.
At the same time, Ajlouni households are far less likely to derive household income from rent or entrepreneurial endeavors. As for expenditures, on the one hand, Ajloun household expenditures consistently rank among the lowest in the Kingdom, with the majority of households spending less than 5,000 JD per year, and over 4% of households spending less than 1,800 JD per year. On the other hand, those expenditures tend to be disproportionately higher for food items and fuel, while lower for education and medical care.
Finally, from a social perspective, Jabal Ajloun suffers from a lack of healthcare institutions as well as cultural and civil-society entities. As of 2006, the entire governorate of Ajloun was served by only a single hospital and a mere 105 beds, which translates into eight beds per 10,000 people – one of the lowest ratios in the entire kingdom. These numbers have improved in the last decade but not enough. Thus, putting this in context, an area that contained 2.3% of the population of Jordan was served by less than 1% of the hospital beds in the Kingdom. Primary health care clinics have struggled to address this failure of coverage; though there are primary and maternity clinics, there are comparatively few peripheral and dental care clinics. All of these issues, and many of those that will follow, will be exacerbated by demographic pressure.
In 2007, we estimated that Jabal Ajloun had a population of 385,303 people in 2007 (nearly 7% of the population of Jordan). We assumed that if population growth continues at the historic rate of 2.37%, the population will reach over 660,000 people in 2030. Even using the more conservative World Bank projection for Jordan, the Ajlouni population was estimated to grow by 168 thousand people between 2007 and 2030 – 44% of the baseline population. In light of this growth, and in light of the fact that around 41% of the Ajlouni population is under 15 years of age, the socioeconomic problems in the area will worsen without some change in economic base in Ajloun.
This is the second post in a series on OHK’s work in North Jordan. See our previous post ‘The Case of Regional Economies’. For more information about our development and economic strategy practice, contact us.