Enhancing Climate Change Resilience in Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon: Three Tourism-Centric Benchmarks for the MENA Region and Beyond

Analysis of Metric Tools for Assessing Vulnerability, Promoting Sustainability, and Driving Adaptation Strategies

Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon face significant challenges due to climate change impacts. These challenges include increased vulnerability to climate-related risks such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem changes. It is crucial to address these challenges and develop effective strategies to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience in these countries.

Egypt receives mixed ratings in the four main CCPI categories. It rates high in GHG Emissions and Energy Use and medium in Climate Policy but very low in Renewable Energy. Egypt submitted its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) update in July 2022. According to the Climate Action Tracker, however, the new NDC only includes emissions reduction targets for the electricity, transport, oil, and gas sectors. These account for 42% of Egypt’s emissions (as of 2015). The CCPI experts also criticize the NDC update’s lack of transparency. Egypt did not communicate its business-as-usual pathway, so the overall emissions level resulting from the NDC is unclear and difficult to quantify.

The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually since 2005, is an independent monitoring tool for tracking countries’ climate protection performance. It increases transparency in national and international climate policy and enables comparison of individual countries’ climate protection efforts and progress. The CCPI indicates the climate mitigation efforts of 59 countries and the EU, which collectively account for over 90% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results are compiled with 400 national experts evaluating their countries’ most recent national and international climate policies. In addition to the CCPI, several other tools and frameworks provide valuable insights into climate change performance.

Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon share common characteristics and vulnerabilities in their various sectors, especially tourism and services. To some extent, countries in the MENA region are exposed to similar climate change risks and challenges, particularly those that share coastlines, climate zones, and energy-intensive profiles. These risks include water scarcity, rising temperatures, coastal erosion, and potential damage to natural and cultural heritage sites. Given its significance to GDP in these countries, the tourism sector is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, requiring effective tools and frameworks to enhance resilience and sustainability. Various tools and frameworks have been developed to support decision-making, risk assessment, adaptation planning, and sustainable practices within the tourism industry. These tools and frameworks are crucial in guiding tourism stakeholders, governments, and businesses in addressing climate change challenges. We explore some tools and frameworks that have been applied for climate change resilience in the tourism sector.

Vulnerability assessment tools, such as the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and the Global Climate Risk Index (GCRI), provide systematic approaches to evaluate the vulnerability of cities, destinations, and tourism assets to climate change impacts.

The Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), grounded in the vulnerability framework of the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, identifies areas critically requiring adaptation and mitigation measures. It factors in climate change impacts, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, though it doesn't directly address tourism. As a key indicator of the ND-GAIN Country Index, the CVI appraises a country's vulnerability and readiness for climate change adaptation. It has notably been applied to Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt, yielding recent scores of 9.37, 6.73, and 5.87, respectively—higher scores denote increased vulnerability. Beyond its general use, the CVI has also been employed as a rapid assessment tool for heritage and cultural resources. In the context of World Heritage sites, Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco are notable, each possessing 7, 6, and 9 sites, respectively. These sites, significant tourist attractions, are integrated into domestic or regional ecotourism circuits, further emphasizing the value of the CVI in these countries.

The Global Climate Risk Index (GCRI) evaluates countries’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts alongside societal preparedness and adaptive capacity. Despite not directly addressing tourism, the GCRI proves to be a significant policy and analytical instrument. According to the 2021 GCRI, which employs the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) for vulnerability assessment, Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt are notably vulnerable to climate change impacts. Specifically, Lebanon ranks fourth globally, while Morocco and Egypt follow, ranking 16th and 22nd, respectively.

The Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC) Criteria is a globally recognized framework for sustainable tourism practices. The criteria cover various aspects of sustainability, including environmental, socio-cultural, and economic dimensions. They provide guidelines for tourism businesses, destinations, and certification bodies to implement sustainable practices and improve their environmental and social performance.

By adopting the GSTC Criteria, tourism stakeholders can mitigate the negative impacts of tourism on the environment, preserve cultural heritage, and contribute to local economies. In addition, the Travelife Sustainability System offers a certification program and management tools for tour operators and accommodations—it helps businesses assess their sustainability performance, identify improvement areas, and implement measures to reduce environmental impacts, support local communities, and enhance social responsibility. The system enables tourism businesses to meet the growing demand for sustainable travel options and differentiate themselves in the market. The GSTC Criteria have been adopted in various countries, including Morocco, Lebanon, and Egypt, to benchmark sustainability performance. Egypt has incorporated these criteria into its Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities' sustainable tourism certification program. In 2019, Lebanon crafted a sustainable tourism strategy centered around the GSTC Criteria. Similarly, in 2018, the Morocco Ministry of Tourism collaborated with GSTC, signing a Memorandum of Understanding that led to sustainable tourism training and integrating the GSTC Criteria into Morocco's tourism policies and practices. These initiatives lay the valuable groundwork for sustainability assessment, directing the choice of suitable indicators and methodologies for assessing sustainability in these three countries and the Middle East and North Africa region.

Staying within tourism, the European Tourism Indicator System (ETIS) merits discussion. Developed by the European Commission, the ETIS offers an extensive set of indicators designed to monitor the sustainability of tourism destinations. It considers various dimensions, such as environmental, social, and economic impacts, governance, and management. Its distinctiveness lies in incorporating climate-related indicators, enabling destinations to evaluate and track their carbon emissions, energy consumption, and other impacts.

Although specifically designed for European locations, its methodology and indicators could be modified and tailored to other regions, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The system embodies a set of climate-related indicators, covering aspects like carbon emissions, energy consumption, utilization of renewable energy sources, climate change adaptation measures, and involvement of local stakeholders. Thus, the ETIS serves as a valuable best practice reference for dialogues with local stakeholders on assessment and monitoring in the tourism sector.

Lebanon has made efforts to implement sustainable tourism practices based on the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC) Criteria. In 2019, Lebanon developed a sustainable tourism strategy aligned with the GSTC Criteria. However, the specific details of Lebanon's progress in meeting the criteria are not clear. Regarding climate change performance, Lebanon's ranking and score on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is not clear due to insufficient data availability. Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt have developed inventory reports on greenhouse gas emissions using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines. These guidelines support countries in estimating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions.

Effective data and information management are crucial for evidence-based decision-making and monitoring progress in climate change resilience.

The World Bank's Country Climate Development Reports (CCDRs) provide essential insights into the current and future climate change situations in Lebanon, Egypt, and Morocco. These reports assess climate change impacts, policy frameworks, and measures taken for climate-resilient development. They serve as key data sources, allowing stakeholders to understand climate risks, vulnerability assessments, and the potential impact on various sectors, including tourism.

The UNWTO Climate Risk Adaptation Tools offer practical guidance on assessing and managing climate risks in the tourism sector. These tools assist in identifying vulnerabilities, evaluating adaptation options, and developing strategies to build resilience. By integrating these tools into tourism planning processes, destinations can enhance their capacity to adapt to climate change impacts and maintain sustainable tourism practices. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines provide comprehensive guidance on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. These guidelines are valuable resources for tourism stakeholders, governments, and businesses seeking to incorporate climate change considerations into their planning and development processes.

OECD's Strategies and Policy Instruments—while not OECD members, Lebanon, Egypt, and Morocco can benefit from the organization's Green Growth Strategies and Policy Instruments. The Green Growth Indicators framework can be adapted to assess the sustainability of tourism activities. The Policy Instruments for the Environment (PIE) Database offers insights into relevant policy instruments applicable to the MENA region, supporting green growth objectives.

Morocco has ranked seventh in the recently-published Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), issued by Germanwatch, New Climate Institute, and Climate Action Network, due to its decarbonization efforts and support of green solutions in the energy and transport sectors. As in the previous two years, Morocco rates high in three main CCPI categories: GHG Emissions, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. And while the trend in renewable energy rates is very high, the country receives a very low rating for its share of renewable energy and a low for its 2030 targets. This results in Morocco’s overall medium for Renewable Energy. If Morocco maintains it positive trend in renewable energy, it should improve in the other two indicators as well. Despite this positive development, the CCPI experts note that Morocco lacks the will to decentralize renewable energy and encourage citizens to produce their own.

The GHG Protocol and tourism-centric carbon footprint calculators offer essential tools for measuring and managing greenhouse gas emissions within the tourism industry. Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt have recognized these frameworks' value and incorporated them into their sustainability efforts. By utilizing the GHG Protocol and adopting carbon footprint calculators, these countries can effectively quantify their emissions, develop targeted reduction strategies, and promote sustainable practices within their tourism sectors. With a continued commitment to measuring and managing emissions, these countries can contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change and create a more sustainable future for the tourism industry.

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol) has become a crucial framework for measuring and managing greenhouse gas emissions across various sectors, including tourism. Countries such as Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt have recognized the GHG Protocol's importance and utilized it to varying extents in their sustainability efforts.

The GHG Protocol has been integrated into the Green Guesthouse certification program in Lebanon. This program evaluates the sustainability performance of guesthouses and includes GHG inventories as one of the criteria. By incorporating the GHG Protocol, Lebanon aims to assess and address the emissions associated with the tourism sector, promoting environmentally friendly practices within the industry. Similarly, Morocco has implemented the GHG Protocol methodology in its Eco-Certified Hotel Program. This program focuses on measuring and reducing hotel GHG emissions, aligning with international standards. Using the GHG Protocol, Morocco's tourism industry can effectively quantify its emissions and develop strategies to minimize its carbon footprint. In Egypt, the GHG Protocol plays a significant role in the low-carbon tourism strategy for the Red Sea Governorate. This strategy identifies the primary sources of emissions within the tourism sector and aims to develop reduction strategies accordingly. Using the GHG Protocol, Egypt can accurately measure its emissions and implement targeted actions to mitigate its environmental impact.

In addition to the GHG Protocol, carbon footprint calculators tailored specifically for the tourism industry have proven to be valuable tools for measuring emissions and identifying opportunities for reduction. Organizations such as Sustainable Travel International and the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) have developed these calculators to assist businesses and destinations in assessing their carbon footprints. Successful implementations of tourism-centric carbon footprint calculators have been witnessed in various locations, such as the Balearic Islands in Spain and Helsinki, Finland. These initiatives have effectively measured carbon footprints associated with tourism activities and provided insights into potential areas for emissions reduction. The data obtained from these calculators enable businesses and destinations to make informed decisions and implement targeted strategies to minimize their carbon impact. Encouraging the adoption of carbon footprint calculators in Lebanon, Egypt, and Morocco can greatly support their emissions reduction strategies within the tourism sector. By implementing these calculators, businesses and destinations in these countries can gain a comprehensive understanding of their carbon footprints and identify specific areas where they can implement sustainable practices and reduce emissions.

These examples demonstrate the practical application of tools and metrics-based frameworks in Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon to enhance climate change resilience in their respective tourism sectors. By incorporating these approaches, these countries are taking significant steps toward building sustainable and resilient tourism industries facing climate change challenges. OHK has mapped the use of more than 100 tools across the MENA region; contact us if you want to learn more about this work.